Grade 4 Probability Worksheets — Free Printable PDF
Fourth grade is a good age to meet chance in words before meeting it in numbers. A child who can say that taking a green counter from a bag of red and blue ones is impossible, and that taking a red one from nine red and one blue is likely, already understands the idea a fraction will later put a number on.
These sheets stay entirely in words. One sub-skill asks how likely a single outcome is — certain, likely, unlikely or impossible — and the other compares two outcomes and asks which is the more likely of them. Choose a sub-skill, set how many questions you want, and tick the answer key to print the answers separately.
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Probability · Grade 4
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Grade 4 · 3 pages · A4More Grade 4 probability skills
Each one generates a different kind of question, with its own three levels and answer key.
What each level generates
Grade 4 how likely is it? — the exact skill behind each difficulty setting, straight from the generator.
- Level 1A bag you can see into
- Level 2Sections of a spinner
- Level 3Bags, spinners and cards
Grade levels follow the progression common to most English-language curricula — not one specific national curriculum. Every level shows exactly what it generates, so you can check the fit with your own program. See the full scope & sequence →
Where Grade 4 probability sits in the curriculum
This is worth stating plainly, because it varies more than most topics. US Common Core has no probability standard at fourth grade — it has no Statistics and Probability domain in the elementary grades at all, and introduces probability in grade 7. England's national curriculum has nothing on chance before Key Stage 3. So if you are following either of those, treat this page as an early head start rather than as required work.
Other English-language curricula do teach it here. The Australian Curriculum's Year 4 Probability strand asks pupils to describe possible everyday events and order outcomes by their likelihood, and Ontario's Grade 4 expectation names the terms impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely and certain directly. That is what these sheets practise.
The middle of the scale is deliberately avoided
Four words cannot describe every probability. If likely means better than an even chance and unlikely means worse, then an exactly even chance has no word at all, and something like five red counters against four blue is technically likely while being indefensible to say out loud.
So the first sub-skill never asks about anything near the middle: an outcome is either at most a one-in-four chance or at least a three-in-four one, and everything between is left out. The comparison sub-skill is where the middle lives, because "the same" is one of its three answers. A child who meets that idea here has the vocabulary ready for the equally-likely work in Grade 5.
Frequently asked questions
▸Is probability a Grade 4 topic?
It depends on your curriculum. US Common Core has no probability standard at Grade 4 and introduces the topic in Grade 7, and England's national curriculum starts it at Key Stage 3. The Australian Curriculum and Ontario both teach chance at this age, and these sheets follow that sequence. Many teachers use it as early enrichment.
▸Are there spinners or dice pictures to colour in?
No. Each question describes its situation in a sentence, such as "A spinner has 12 equal sections and 5 of them are red", and the child answers from the description. The thinking is the same and the sheet prints identically everywhere.
▸What answers should my child write?
One of four words on the first sub-skill — certain, likely, unlikely or impossible — and one of three on the second: more, less or the same. Both are printed in the instruction line at the top of the sheet, so nobody has to guess the wording.
▸Why are there no questions about an even chance on the first sub-skill?
Because none of the four words fits one. An even chance is neither likely nor unlikely, so those questions live on the second sub-skill instead, where "the same" is an answer.
▸Is this worksheet generator free?
Yes — free, no sign-up, and no watermark. The sheet is built in your browser, and the link in the address bar reprints the same worksheet whenever you want it again.